{"data":{"article_id": "","user_id": "","source_id": "","title":"底部重点推荐❗【天风电新】美畅股份","subtitle": "","image": "","cover": "","content":"\u003Cp\u003E看好钨丝放量业绩底部反转，开启新一轮技术引领周期-0513\n————————————\n# 钨丝放量、业绩底部反转\n25Q1业绩扭亏为盈，原因在于：\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E1）当前钨丝线盈利、碳钢线亏损，钨丝线出货比例由24Q4的20%+提升至40%+；\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E2）人员优化、设备利用率提升，成本显著下降。随着钨丝线全面替代碳钢线，出货占比将逐季提升，25Q4有望达到80%~90%，业绩将逐季改善。\n\n# 25Q3起钨丝母线自制、盈利加速提升\n钨丝金刚线的壁垒在于母线，成本占比60%以上。公司钨丝母线产能5月开始陆续投产，25Q3全面导入。随着良率提升、规模效应，毛利率有望对标厦钨（20%~25%），带来3元\u002FKm左右降本空间，盈利将加速提升。 \u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E# 钨丝线引领新一轮技术周期\n碳钢线径接近理论极限，技术进步带来的降本空间缩小，陷入同质化竞争和亏损。钨丝线径理论极限大幅下探，行业重回产品、细线化迭代，不再唯价格竞争。美畅凭借从钨粉到钨丝母线到金刚线一体化，以及金刚石微粉自制工艺，将通过技术引领持续获得超额收益。\n\n# 盈利预测&投资建议\n预计公司25年出货6000万Km钨丝+4000万Km碳钢，钨丝盈利3.5元\u002FKm以上，碳钢亏损0.5元\u002FKg，贡献2亿利润；26年出货1.2亿Km（全部钨丝），母线自制盈利提升至5元\u002FKm，贡献6亿利润。\n公司当前市值91亿，在手现金37亿，无有息负债。给予26年20X PE，加上在手现金，目标市值150亿，底部重点推荐。\n————————————\n欢迎有需要联系：孙潇雅\u002F敖颖晨\u003C\u002Fp\u003E","url": "","type": "","read_limit": "","reward_amount": "","reward_count": "","reward_integral": "","reward_integral_count": "","comment_count": "","collect_count": "","like_count": "","step_count": "","forward_count": "","integral": "","hot_0_12":.9,"hot_12_24": "","hot_12_18": "","hot_18_24": "","is_top": "","is_hot_top": "","is_user_top": "","read_integral": "","read_limit_time": "","fans_limit": "","copy_limit": "","old_type": "","hide_flag": "","hide": "","is_weak": "","create_time":"2025-05-13 09:13:03","update_time": "","mark_status": "","last_mark_time": "","is_provide_openapi": "","is_make_word_cloud": "","sync_time":"2025-05-13 09:14:34","is_flatter": "","feature_img": "","interest_disclosure": "","new_interaction_time":"2025-05-13 09:15:39","sensitive_words":"q","warn_words":"推荐,13,毛,润,出货,替代,推荐","area":"山西","user_read_limit": "","read_pay_limit": "","user":{"user_id": "","nickname":"小蜜蜂","avatar":"https:\u002F\u002Fjiucaigongshe.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com\u002Fmerchant\u002F1720713115693bbb64934717da3343b55cbb6adc66c0d.png!qt324new_nowater","medal_count": "","style_str": "","follow_status": "","follow_type": ""},"stock_list":[{"stock_id":"c3210a0ed40c4c318d3d98f604e4894c","name":"美畅股份","code":"sz300861"}]}}